Saturday, 10 December 2011

Paul Le Claire Responds to the Census Findings


Former Deputy Paul Le Claire responds to the Census Findings. During his time in the States he has  challenged the findings of the States Statistic Unit in many a debate.

 Has Paul le Claire got his figures right?

Is the real figure at 100,000 plus?

This is a very serious situation for the Island. 

Team Voice 

Dear States Member , 

The total resident population of Jersey revealed in our latest Census, shows that on the 27 March 2011, Jersey had a resident 

population of 97,857

The previous estimate produced and published in June of 2010, by the States Statistics Unit for the end of 2009, was 92,500.

The new figures demonstrate that in just 15 short months we have seen an increase of 5357 more people in Jersey. 

The average number of births over deaths for the 5 year period 2005 to 2009 was +250.  The figure for 2010 was  + 270.

If births have continued at this higher number of 270 per year, we can say that the numbers of locally originating people

increase the estimated total resident population up from 92500 from Dec 2009 by a figure of 337 to a total of 92837

The number of new migrants in Jersey in those 15 months therefore is 5020. 

The annual average over the 5 year period 2005-2009 was 640 people into the island per year.

These much higher numbers have occurred in a period when the global recession was well underway. 

The alarming rate of increase in this short period of 15 months of 5020 new migrants is a cause for serious concern and action. 

If we have continued to increase our population at the same pace in these last 8 months, as we have since 2010, then we now 

have another 2677 more people living in Jersey today, that have migrated here.

With a further 8 months of births over deaths at that higher average, this adds a further 180.

This makes our current population at or around 100714.

My Information is derived from the States Statistics Department, who in the words of our last Chief MInister are

"independent, impartial and  professional."

It is my estimate therefore using their Statistics, that our current resident population is 100714. 

If we add a further 2052 people,  which were the numbers of short term visitors here in the end of March 

in this latest Census, then that gives us a total human being count, in Jersey today of, 102766. 



Paul Le Claire


Tom Gruchy said...

Others, including myself challenged the Statistics Unit too - especially during the Draft Island Plan Inquiry hearings over four weeks.

The housing part of the Island Plan as agreed by the States was baloney then and it is still baloney. The whole of the Island Plan as agreed is substantially flawed as a result because the housing part is so wrong and indaequate.
The official and emotive obsesseion with "preserving green fields" is just a load of prejudicial tosh.
The Island Plan should be scrapped and the Planners must start again with accurate figures re population and the rest.
Now that Le Claire is out of the States he will experience afresh the sheer joy of shouting into the wind like the rest of us - knowing that nobody with power listens or really cares.

Anonymous said...


Is it possible to get some links up to the debates and who said what? There have been some rather huge porkies told concerning the population in Jersey.

James said...

The new figures demonstrate that in just 15 short months we have seen an increase of 5357 more people in Jersey.

They show no such thing, because this is comparing a census with an estimate, and the two are not the same thing by any stretch of the imagination. Most likely it shows that the estimate was badly wrong - which is worrying in itself.

Le Claire's projections (otherwise "pick a number out of the air") are simply garbage. If this is really the calibre of politician Jersey people were happy to elect to the States for 12 years, the island deserves everything that's coming to it.

Anonymous said...

I totally agree with Paul, it is shocking this is happening, they were warned but as usual done nothing about it and just let every Tom, Dick & Harry in. I would also like to point out I know a few who did not even return their forms and I guarantee there are a lot who have not declared everyone who lives in their houses. So this Census is a rough figure so as paul says you can add a lot more on that figure.

Paul said...

It is I Le Claire. Setting aside any bad tempered response to James;s unfortunate remarks. These are not my numbers ...they are the states statistics Unit numbers. Who I have always found to be first class! I don't believe their numbers are wrong and I am not disputing them or their work! I am disputing the previous COM views and those of the Treasury Minister who it seems to appear dont want anyone to realise how badly they have handled this issue over the last decade in their stubborn resistance to my calls for proper controls in the form of work permits which simply work.
The worrying part in all of this is the huge increase from what we were told was the population numbers in Dec 2009 to what we now know in 2011 and that is that we have seen an increase from 92500 to 97857. That is an increase of of 5357.
In 15 months. (CALCULATORS!)
A flood of people over a very short period and is a major point everyone is missing
The numbers have increased beyond failure to catastrophe in my view and we have a worrying position unseen and under appreciated by politicians, the public and the media alike. These numbers have very worrying implications on all sections of our community including those seeking work which number in excess of 2000 now. Take the Island Plan which was way out in all of its predictions when it was approved this year. This plans for everything in Jersey, so everything is way under appreciated. I made this point in the debate and in the media when the JEP revealed my findings on the front page much to the annoyance of the Council of Ministers about their failure to control population.
The following is from the proposition for the Island Plan
5.3 The States of Jersey has considered and adopted a strategy to respond to and best manage the demographic shift in the Island’s population, represented by the ageing society. In doing this, it has addressed the issue of inward
migration and the Island Plan responds to this key strategic direction.
Specifically, in the short term, the States have adopted a policy which allows
maximum inward migration at a rolling 5 year average of no more than
150 heads of household per annum (an overall increase of c.325 people per annum). This is to be reviewed and reset every 3 years. And it is this that has been used to assess and formulate all of the planning policies contained in the Island Plan, such as, for example, the level of provision that needs to be made to meet the potential housing demand over the Plan period.
As you can see from that the states had agreed no more than a maximum of 325 more people more a year when they were getting 950. Deputy Geoff Southern backed me up on this with questions in the states as did Deputy Wimberley.
As for the estimates which the statistics unit produces ;
For a detailed description of the methodology see the publication:
“Methodology to produce an annual estimate of Jersey’s resident
population”: States of Jersey Statistics Unit, June 2005.
To finish,Thanks for the great work you do Stats unit and keep it up. I for one think you are doing a great job. In truth, I just wish people of your calibre were running the island as you are and always have been polite courteous and professionally independent!
Thank YOu

Anonymous said...

Still no reply from Montfort

" I challenge any Member in recent times to give an example of where the Bailiff when presiding over this Assembly has displayed anything but neutrality and impartiality. If any Member can give an example - a real example; not a blog site example - a real example, let him stand up today and tell us about it."

Why did no member stand up and say something, one incident springs to mind when he cut off Stuart Syvrets microphone when he spoke about the abuse issues many years ago. You could have mentioned that as an example, no?

I am hoping you will be able to put me to right on this because as I see it at this moment I am right royaly miffed that nobody stood up and said anything. How are you going to make a change if you all sit there and miss an opurtunity like that. "

My mind boggles as to why he and others didnt say a word but he hasnt still had the fortitude to answer the question.

I have asked on his blog and he ignores it, I am only posting it here again to prove my point that he cares not a jot, will not answer a simple question as it might mess up his political career. And yet you think he is a great bloke....deluded springs to mind